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Thread: Last gasp of a dying technology?

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    Gu3
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    Default Last gasp of a dying technology?

    HGST is unveiling a 10TB Helium filled Helium filled HDD.

    10TB SMR HelioSeal? HDD | HGST Storage

    I'm sure it'll get used, but I have to think that with the advent of M.2 and NVME coupled with 3D (stackable) Flash technologies, that HDD's are effectively dead, and not too long after this monster hits the market, large SSD's will likely displace it. At least in MOST markets. Given the crazy technology and unbelievable tolerances this drive must require to operate, one must expect it's failure rates to be appalling, even when considering it's HGST and not Seagate.

    I can't help but think that this is the last great and glorious evolutionary product in the distinguished but soon to be historical spinning platter drive market!

    S.

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    Default Re: Last gasp of a dying technology?

    This model of HDD or other similar models, are mostly aimed at medium and large enterprises where is the need of store large amounts of information and data, I do not think it's for the individual PC consumer.

    Always look beyond the limits...

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    Default Re: Last gasp of a dying technology?

    Quote Originally Posted by Smiki007 View Post
    This model of HDD or other similar models, are mostly aimed at medium and large enterprises where is the need of store large amounts of information and data, I do not think it's for the individual PC consumer.
    Oh, no you are absolutely correct. Nonetheless, even in Data Center markets, I think HDD technology is just about dead. Seagate and Western Digital may not know it yet, but I think it's done. Now, I could be wrong, and like the lowly PS2 connector and 9 Pin Serial port, HDD's could hang around for years...but I don't think so...not in any broad usage scenario anyway....

    We'll see.

    Scott

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    Default Re: Last gasp of a dying technology?

    HDDs can't be dead! I have a 16TB NAS that says it ain't so!

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    Default Re: Last gasp of a dying technology?

    I agree that digital storage will fully replace mechanical, but I believe that the "when" may be further off than one would think. There is still such a large gap in pricing that it makes SSD completely unrealistic for larger storage environments. Even if this drive is priced similarly to the cheapest 1TB SSD..... Think about the cost difference for even 100TB, which would be a very small array for the intended use class.

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    Default Re: Last gasp of a dying technology?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ciarlatano View Post
    I agree that digital storage will fully replace mechanical, but I believe that the "when" may be further off than one would think. There is still such a large gap in pricing that it makes SSD completely unrealistic for larger storage environments. Even if this drive is priced similarly to the cheapest 1TB SSD..... Think about the cost difference for even 100TB, which would be a very small array for the intended use class.
    Like you implied It will be a long time coming before we see the end of mach drives, but I can also remember the first digital watch how expensive it was and where that went in a hurry to when the battery died you could just throw it away and buy another watch, they became that cheap

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    Default Re: Last gasp of a dying technology?

    Quote Originally Posted by vinman View Post
    Like you implied It will be a long time coming before we see the end of mach drives, but I can also remember the first digital watch how expensive it was and where that went in a hurry to when the battery died you could just throw it away and buy another watch, they became that cheap
    Every piece of technology has its start and its end, therefore the HDDs also, but not that soon, I think in the next decade or two.

    Always look beyond the limits...

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    Default Re: Last gasp of a dying technology?

    Quote Originally Posted by vinman View Post
    Like you implied It will be a long time coming before we see the end of mach drives, but I can also remember the first digital watch how expensive it was and where that went in a hurry to when the battery died you could just throw it away and buy another watch, they became that cheap
    This One:


    or

    This One:

    Always look beyond the limits...

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    Default Re: Last gasp of a dying technology?

    my problem with SSD is the reliability and security.
    truly erasing a single cluster requires the user to go out of their way
    and drastically shortens the life of the SSD

    these two alone make the HDD remarkably attractive
    learning is good .....understanding is better .....pleas teach with wisdom............................................ ..............calemus

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    Default Re: Last gasp of a dying technology?

    I have so much invested in HDDs that I can't imagine quitting them anytime soon.
    Besides my 16TB NAS, I have multiple 2TB. 1.5TB, and 1TB drives in my PCs.
    They all have a lot of DATA on them, and they all work fine.

    As for SSD reliability, you can test them and gain crucial information on their health if you use SSD-Z on them.

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    Default Re: Last gasp of a dying technology?

    Like most technologies that become obsolete, it doesn't happen directly. People (not to mention enterprises) will continue using what they have because there's no reason not to. The change will happen as they age and need replacing. Whenever a new drive is purchased there will be an ever increasing percentage of SSDs entering use and fewer HDDs. There will likely be mechanical drives in use for decades, but they will be "dead" when they are rare and flash drives are common.

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    Default Re: Last gasp of a dying technology?

    OK OK, I seem I'm in the minority here, but I'm afraid I disagree with most of you.

    For the sake of future "Ha Ha I told you so's" or "Ha Ha Scott you're a Fool" humor, bear with me.

    In less than 5 years, SSD's will displace HDD's in Data Centers.

    Why?

    Reliability, Heat, Vibration.

    HDD Warranties are shortening as capacity goes up (now 3 years on average). Capacity is harder and harder to increase in HDD because of the crazy tight tolerances, and the behavior of the materials. The latest crop of drives uses SMR and Helium (a rare element btw) to achieve high storage densities.

    Conversely, SSD warranties are extending as manufacturers understand wear and performance characteristics of NAND better. To illustrate, consider some of SanDisks SSDs are being offered with a 10 year warranty.

    Large Capacity HDD reliability is horrible (do a search on Backblaze).

    Finally, consider that it has taken just 6.5 years since the X25-M (September 2008) was introduced (widely considered the Watershed Drive for SSD's) @ $595 for 80GB & 200MB/s read performance, for 1TB Drives (Crucal BX100 Feb 2015) with SATA Limited performance of 550MB/s to hit $370. That's 2.25 x the performance and 10+ times the capacity for roughly 60% of the cost. This time last year, the Samsung 960GB SSD was $450 or so ( $0.47/GB ).

    I could be wrong, but I'm betting my ZFS array will never see another HDD added to it. Before I use up the 16TB of capacity, 2TB SSD's with NVMe will be <$100, and 8 of them will take up less space than an Optical Drive.

    Less than 5 years! I've been building PC's since 1989, and I have NEVER seen any new PC technology hit the scene that is improving as fast and reducing it's Price/Performance ratio as fast as SSD's.

    S.
    Last edited by Gu3; 16-03-2015 at 09:10.

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    Default Re: Last gasp of a dying technology?

    Quote Originally Posted by Gu3 View Post
    OK OK, I seem I'm in the minority here, but I'm afraid I disagree with most of you.

    For the sake of future "Ha Ha I told you so's" or "Ha Ha Scott you're a Fool" humor, bear with me.

    In less than 5 years, SSD's will displace HDD's in Data Centers.

    Why?

    Reliability, Heat, Vibration.

    HDD Warranties are shortening as capacity goes up (now 3 years on average). Capacity is harder and harder to increase in HDD because of the crazy tight tolerances, and the behavior of the materials. The latest crop of drives uses SMR and Helium (a rare element btw) to achieve high storage densities.

    Conversely, SSD warranties are extending as manufacturers understand wear and performance characteristics of NAND better. To illustrate, consider some of SanDisks SSDs are being offered with a 10 year warranty.

    Large Capacity HDD reliability is horrible (do a search on Backblaze).

    Finally, consider that it has taken just 6.5 years since the X25-M (September 2008) was introduced (widely considered the Watershed Drive for SSD's) @ $595 for 80GB & 200MB/s read performance, for 1TB Drives (Crucal BX100 Feb 2015) with SATA Limited performance of 550MB/s to hit $370. That's 2.25 x the performance and 10+ times the capacity for roughly 60% of the cost. This time last year, the Samsung 960GB SSD was $450 or so ( $0.47/GB ).

    I could be wrong, but I'm betting my ZFS array will never see another HDD added to it. Before I use up the 16TB of capacity, 2TB SSD's with NVMe will be <$100, and 8 of them will take up less space than an Optical Drive.

    Less than 5 years! I've been building PC's since 1989, and I have NEVER seen any new PC technology hit the scene that is improving as fast and reducing it's Price/Performance ratio as fast as SSD's.

    S.
    Impossible to enter in massive use in the next 5 years (the cost for enterprises will be enormous), as I said (read bellow), maybe in next decade but most certainly in next two decades the SSDs could enter as complete replacement of HDDs massively (large capacity storage systems).

    Quote Originally Posted by Smiki007 View Post
    Every piece of technology has its start and its end, therefore the HDDs also, but not that soon, I think in the next decade or two.

    Always look beyond the limits...

  14. #14
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    Default Re: Last gasp of a dying technology?

    Quote Originally Posted by Smiki007 View Post
    Impossible to enter in massive use in the next 5 years (the cost for enterprises will be enormous), as I said (read bellow), maybe in next decade but most certainly in next two decades the SSDs could enter as complete replacement of HDDs massively (large capacity storage systems).
    Yes, I saw that. And I _still_ disagree. Given the turnover on drives in Enterprise, I think that while there will still be some Legacy hardware (drives) in the Enterprise in 5 years, but ALL new hardware at that point will likely be SSD.

    As you point out, the cost is HUGE, but based on what I hear from enterprise guys over in the ZFS lists, the failure rate on spinning disks is astounding. Vibration and Heat is a huge problem in enterprise, and HDD's just aren't lasting very long (in the larger capacities anyway). If SSD's become price competetive at 1-2 TB in the next couple of years....

    Well, we'll see. Hence my comment about being me possibly being a Fool...lol

    S

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    Default Re: Last gasp of a dying technology?

    There's one other factor in the HDD death being in the near future. Large companies that crunch tons of data need speed. Even though HDDs provide huge amounts of storage, SSDs provide far faster number crunching that HDDs can. I think the speed factor will over weigh the capacity factor for the near future.

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    Default Re: Last gasp of a dying technology?

    Quote Originally Posted by joshjaks View Post
    There's one other factor in the HDD death being in the near future. Large companies that crunch tons of data need speed. Even though HDDs provide huge amounts of storage, SSDs provide far faster number crunching that HDDs can. I think the speed factor will over weigh the capacity factor for the near future.
    And to add to this is this TIME IS MONEY!!!!
    So faster throughput lots of money saved return on investment is fast

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